Usually Surveys commissioned by parties have a huge margin of errors. This margin gets even bigger if the party is in power.
Keeping that aside, we will look into a survey conducted for YSR Congress. The survey has happened between September and October. The results were submitted to CM Jagan in November.
According to the survey, YSR Congress will get 102-105 seats in the best case scenario. Janasena will get three and the remaining will go to TDP.
While we can not endorse the results, if we consider it as best case scenario, YSR Congress is in deep trouble. The party which won 151 seats in 2019 already lost 30% of seats in half of its tenure.
Usually, first three years of a tenure is considered honeymoon period with almost negligible anti-incumbency. Moreover, YSRCP is riding on the hype of 151 seats, forcible local polls victories, and hyped Navaratnalu.
Even in such scenario if the party is losing 30%, it is very difficult to arrest the fall from there in the remainder of the term. Forget about next two years.
There should have been a substantial fall from October to April (present) itself. It’s time for Opposition to pull up their socks.