A survey report by Atma Sakshi conducted in September-end is out in the public domain and it is anything to go by, YS Jagan Mohan Reddy Government is riding on a huge anti-incumbency wave. The survey is conducted in three phases between June 5th and September 20th with a sample size of 68,200. In the 2019 elections, there is a difference of 10.2% vote share between both parties.
In just two and a half years, TDP has closed the gap significantly. Janasena which polled around 5.5% Voteshare in 2019 slips to 4.5% but can be still decisive if they ally with TDP. The Survey predicts that an alliance with BJP can be counterproductive for TDP at the same time.
But then, TDP should work more to convert the vote share into seats. On the other side, TDP believes that the gap may have been reduced further in the last two months. Usually, for any ruling party, the first three years is a honeymoon period. We will see anti-incumbency increasing later.
But if YSR Congress lost 7.8% vote share already, that should ring the danger bells for the party. As far as TDP is concerned, a Padayatra by Chandrababu or Lokesh can change things for good. At the same time, TDP should also activate its ground-level leaders to rejuvenate the cadre.