In AP and Telangana, elections are often won with a vote share of 40-42%. A party becomes invincible when the vote share crosses 50%. In 2014 and 2018, it happened with TRS and with YSR Congress in 2019.
But then, things are quickly changing for TRS in Telangana. In all the recent by-elections, TRS has managed only 40-42%.
It happened in Dubbaka, Huzurabad, Nagarjuna Sagar, and now in Munugode. This is the case with the by-elections the party won and lost.
That means irrespective of the results, it is clear that TRS is losing the vote share. That means the invincibility is gone.
The results going forward will depend on Congress. If Congress is able to retain a decent vote share, TRS will scrape through with an edge in many seats.
At places where Congress is completely decimated, BJP will eat into the anti-government vote and that will give them an edge over TRS.
Congress should be relevant if TRS is supposed to win the 2023 assembly election. At the same time, it is important that the party should ensure that its vote share does not drop below 40%. If it drops, BJP will automatically gain that.
This factor may even force KCR to consider another early election.
