A Popular media source reported a news of former Chief Minister Kiran Kumar Reddy and eight YSR Congress MLAs joining BJP in the presence of Amit Shah in his first visit to the state after the elections. This news once again surfaced the discussion of BJP growing alternate power in AP and challenging TDP along with Jana Sena in the next election. Should TDP really fear BJP’s growth in AP? Here we go –
Andhra Pradesh politics mostly run on the caste combinations. All the influential castes polarize to parties and thus form their strengths. TDP and Congress have such strong polarization. Later with Congress weakening, the polarization shifted to YSR Congress only due to the ideological similarity between both the parties. The polarization is not easy to shift towards BJP for the simple reason Congress and YSR Congress are totally different to that of BJP. For example, Minorities are strong base for Congress and YSR Congress but totally against the BJP.
Can the polarization take place with the injection of leaders of other parties? Again a myth that few individuals can bring their influence to help the party. Most leaders joining BJP have lost the recent elections despite their personal popularity, so it is still a big doubt if they can bring radical changes to BJP’s fortunes. Also leaders like Kanna, Kiran Kumar Reddy are Congress men through out their lives, it is interesting to see if they can fit in to a totally different party!
Pawan Kalyan effect – Yes Pawan Kalyan have contributed significantly for TDP+BJP win in the last election. BJP may make him as the face of the party and go to polls but will he prove effective? Pawan Kalyan with his popularity in youth can bring the 1000-2000 votes per constituency which will be decisive in close contests. His effect complimented the traditional vote base of TDP in 2014 elections. But now if he leads BJP, he will have to bring all those 40000-50000 votes to the party which is not easy as normal people except the youth still see Pawan Kalyan as an instable man with several personal drawbacks. Given all these factors, BJP rising and posing a threat to TDP is easier said than done!
