The Pioneer has published a survey of Andhra Pradesh conducted by a group of IIT-educated independent qualified psephology enthusiasts. It reveals that the Vote share gap between YSR Congress and Telugu Desam Party is shortening. YSRCP secured almost 50% Voteshare in the 2019 elections while TDP polled close to 40%.
In the survey conducted between May to September with 68,200 samples across all the thirteen districts, YSR Congress has lost around 3% of its vote bank and is at 46.5%. Almost all of the lost vote bank has gone to the Telugu Desam Party which is now at 43.5%.
Janasena is at 4.25% while the other has a 1% vote bank. The survey says 46 MLAs and 8 MPs of YSR Congress are facing severe anti-incumbency. At least eleven ministers including three Deputy CMs are likely to lose in their constituencies. There are 4.75% of voters who are yet to make their choice. Usually, undecided voters naturally are anti-government. Losing a 3% vote in the first half of the term is dangerous for any ruling party.
Given the financial problems of Andhra Pradesh and the way how the Government is trying to cut beneficiaries of various schemes, the anti-incumbency will only rise. We have also seen the Government imposing more taxes on the people. Moreover, we have seen the government getting into one controversy or the other every now and then.
At this moment, TDP looks weak and the party still improving its vote bank is a sign of anti-incumbency. Any opposition party will naturally become active close to the election and will only better its chances. So, the survey will definitely ring the danger bells for YSR Congress.
