Researchers of Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) predict India facing the worst of the coronavirus pandemic early next year if a vaccine remains elusive. Their study on testing and case data of 84 countries, comprising 60 percent of the world population will spell doom for India if true.
They predicted that India might record 2.87 lakh coronavirus cases per day by February 2021. While the United States is the worst-hit country now, India will overtake the US by then. India will be followed by the United States (95,000 cases per day), South Africa (21,000 cases per day), and Iran (17,000 cases per day) by the end of February 2021.
The study takes into account three scenarios: (1) current testing rates and their response, (2) if testing increases by 0.1 percent per day from July 1, 2020, and (3) if testing remains at current levels but contact rate to perceived risk is set to 8 (i.e. if one infected person can infect eight people).
Currently, India is registering somewhere between 20K to 25K cases per day. Already, the health care system is crumbling under the pressure of the cases. Recording over Two Lakh Cases per day will be devastating for the country. We can only pray for herd immunity or the vaccine to arrive fast.